DAX fell for the week after dropping below 25,000 on Thursday, while Dow and NASD both closed higher as oil and bond yields eased late in the week. This week brings the start of bank earnings on Tuesday and September's US CPI on Wednesday, with US bond markets shut Monday for Columbus Day.
NASD touched a fresh record intraday high on Friday after a soft September jobs report eased bets on another Fed rate rise, but it closed just short of its record close. Dow and DAX both ended the week lower. This week is quieter on data, with ISM services on Monday and Fed minutes on Wednesday.
NASD came within a whisker of its own all-time high after a volatile week, while Dow snapped a three-week losing streak and DAX edged higher too. This week brings the busiest data run since the Fed's rate rise - Thursday's PCE reading and Friday's jobs report - now that Congress has defused the shutdown risk that briefly threatened it.
The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, and the three main indices split on it: Dow had its worst week since March as bond yields pushed above 5%, while NASD shrugged it off with a strong Friday. With more than ten Fed officials due to speak this week and little fresh data, their tone is likely to matter more than any single number.
DAX, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed lower after August's CPI and PPI came in higher than expected, pushing the odds of the Fed raising rates up to around 70%. Wednesday's decision, due the same morning as August retail sales, is the week's one real event.
A look at the week ahead for DAX, Dow, and Nasdaq: a US bank holiday Monday, then Thursday's and Friday's inflation reports landing right before the Fed's September meeting, after Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs numbers.
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DAX, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed higher last week, but new Fed chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut pushed September rate-hike odds to 55.7%, leaving Friday's jobs report to decide whether that holds.
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DAX, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed out a second straight weekly decline on Friday, and this week's real event isn't a data print, it's Kevin Warsh's first keynote as Fed chair at Jackson Hole on Friday, with Wednesday's GDP and PCE double-header setting the stage for it.