I test a lot of systems against historical data, and most of the time the goal is finding an edge to trade. Every so often, the more useful thing that falls out is a measurement instead of a strategy, and this year handed me one that says more about the market itself than any strategy could: breakouts on GER40 and Nasdaq have been failing at a higher rate than at any point in the data I’ve got. ...
Here is another example of a trade using the strategy from Buy the dips, sell the rallies — almost the same setup, but the result could have been better. The entry was fine. The problem was the exit: no target, and an emotional decision to get out early. The trade — M1 entry M1 — price rejection at Day Open with Inside Bar (IB), Acceleration Correction visible in eWaves, 3.20R exit ...
I trade the London Session on GER40 and I’m normally done after an hour and a half — although there are plenty of times when the action comes later in the day. I choose to limit my time in the market. The process starts with a weekly review of the higher time frames — D1 and H1 — but my main interest is M15 for direction and target, and M1 for entry. I’ll try to align the trade with Elliott waves, but this post is focused on the trade setup itself. ...