Interest Rates

Bar chart showing weekly percentage change for DAX (-1.0%), Dow (-1.7%), and NASD (+0.7%) for the week ending Friday, September 18

Week ahead: the Fed raised rates, now come the speeches

The Fed did what the market had been pricing in for weeks: on Wednesday it raised its main interest rate by a quarter point, to a range of 3.75-4.00%, the first time it’s raised rates since 2023. What happened next is the more interesting part. Government bond yields pushed above 5% for the first time in almost two decades, which weighed hard on Dow and DAX, while NASD brushed the whole thing off and finished the week higher. That split, not the rate rise itself, is the story going into this week. ...

Bar chart showing weekly percentage change for DAX (-2.0%), Dow (-0.3%), and Nasdaq (+0.4%) for the week ending Friday, September 4

Week ahead: a quiet Monday, then two price reports that matter more than most

US markets are shut today for Labor Day, so nothing moves until Tuesday. Once trading resumes, the week comes down to two releases: Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI, both landing just days before the Fed’s 16 September rate decision. Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report already pushed the odds of a hike higher, and with Fed officials now in their pre-meeting blackout period, this week’s inflation data is the last real input anyone gets before that decision. ...

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