Week Ahead

Last week never really settled down, and it closed with all three indices lower for a second week running even after a strong Friday. This week starts quietly by comparison, nothing major is due out of the US today, but that quiet is only the calm before Friday, when new Fed chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote address at Jackson Hole. Wednesday’s GDP and PCE double-header is the last real data point standing between here and there, and how markets read it will shape how much room Warsh has to move the needle on Friday. ...

This one’s going out two days later than planned, picking up mid-week instead of at the start of it. Last week ended with records: the S&P 500 broke 7,800 on Thursday, the DAX brushed its own all-time high on Friday, and the Nasdaq Composite put in its best single session in weeks. The two sessions since have undone a good part of that. Long-dated Treasury yields have spiked to levels not seen since 2007, oil has jumped as US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz broke down, and all three indices have now fallen for two straight days. Today’s FOMC minutes and a wave of retail earnings, several of them out this morning, are what decide whether that continues. ...

Last week gave the desks something to talk about. The DAX, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed near records on Friday, each riding its own version of the same story: an earnings season stronger than expected, and a labour market soft enough to put rate cuts back on the table. This week hands the wheel to a different driver. With earnings thinning out, US inflation data takes over as the thing that moves price. ...